Competing Connectivity Projects in the Arabian Sea: A Comparative Analysis of Gwadar and Chabahar Ports and Their Implications for Regional Stability

Abstract

Abstract

Today, the geoeconomics of the northern littoral of the Arabian Sea is increasingly shaped by two maritime hubs: Pakistan's Gwadar, connected to Beijing's Belt and Road initiative through the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, and Iran's Chabahar, which is being developed with long-term Indian capital, and is now operated under a ten-year bilateral contract signed in May 2024. These two ports are about 170 kilometres apart along the Makran coast and operate concurrently as trade hubs and tools of statecraft for Beijing and New Delhi. This article adopts a qualitative method, which involves comparative case study analysis and process tracing, to examine the influence of the strategic competition in these projects on the regional stability in South Asia, Central Asia and the Indian Ocean Region. The analysis, based on geopolitical theory (Alfred Thayer Mahan's sea power framework, Halford Mackinder's Heartland thesis, and contemporary geoeconomic competition literature), primary policy documents, and peer-reviewed scholarship, shows that the Gwadar–Chabahar rivalry is structurally shaped by great-power competition between China and India, with the domestic vulnerabilities of Pakistan and Iran respectively, and complicated by US sanctions, the Balochistan insurgency, and the post-2021 Afghan configuration. The article suggests that, despite their geographical proximity, the cooperation between the two ports is still not well developed and is not desired by the main sponsors. It also argues that this competitive setup creates negative externalities for regional stability, such as arms of securitisation of civilian infrastructure, displacement of Afghan transit trade, and the formation of competing alliance architectures in a strategically volatile corridor. The article ends with policy recommendations aimed at regional multilateral frameworks which, under appropriate political circumstances, could turn competitive proximity into functional complementarity.

Keywords: Gwadar Port, Chabahar Port, CPEC, BRI, INSTC, India–China rivalry, Arabian Sea geopolitics, regional stability, geoeconomics, process tracing