Impact of Climate Variability on Insect Pest Incidence and Farmers’ Adaptive Strategies

Abstract

Climate variability is a major problem to agricultural productivity as it changes the pest patterns and endangers the crop yield. This paper explores how Impact of Climate Variability on Insect Pest Incidence and Farmers’ Adaptive Strategies in South Punjab, Pakistan. Three divisions (Multan, Bahawalpur and Dera Ghazi Khan) were randomly sampled to include 120 farmers who were surveyed on the pest incidence, climate perception, contact on extension and adaptation response. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, correlation, Chi-square tests, binary logistic regression, and multiple linear regression. Findings show a high incidence of pests with an average of 72.5 percent of farmers reporting on higher incidences of pests in the past few years, and the common ones being sucking pests and bollworms. Binary logistic regression identified significant positive increases in the probability of pests to occur on Climate Variability Index (B = 1.284, Exp(B) = 3.61, p < 0.001) and negative significant mitigating effects of extension contact on pest increase (B = -0.743, Exp(B) = 0.48, p = 0.009). Experience in farming and farm size had a positive correlation with incidence of pests. The multiple linear regression indicated adaptive strategy by farmers had strong impacts of perception of climate variation (b = 0.431, p < 0.001), extension contact (b = 0.297, p < 0.001), education (b = 0.215, p = 0.005) and the size of the farm (b = 0.143, p = 0.047). These results highlight the high importance of climate-sensitive extension services in increasing the adaptive capacity of farmers and encouraging sustainable pest control. Specific advisory services, knowledge sharing, and climate robust interventions are suggested to reduce the risks of pests and enhance the sustainability of agriculture in the new climatic conditions.

Keywords: Climate Change, Insect-pest, alternatives, Yield