Population Dynamics, Inflation, Education and Economic Growth: A Comparative Study of Pakistan and China

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of population growth, inflation, and public education expenditure on economic growth through a comparative analysis of Pakistan and China. Using annual time-series data for Pakistan (1995–2020) and comparative empirical evidence for China from the same period, the study applies an econometric growth framework grounded in classical and endogenous growth theories (Barro, 2001; Bloom & Canning, 2001). Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and diagnostic tests are employed for Pakistan, while China’s results are reported using comparable econometric findings from the literature. The results show that population growth and inflation negatively affect economic growth in Pakistan, whereas public education expenditure has a positive and statistically significant impact. In contrast, China exhibits a weak or neutral effect of population growth, a stable inflation-growth relationship, and a strong positive contribution of education spending to economic growth. The findings emphasize the importance of demographic management, macroeconomic stability, and sustained investment in human capital for long-run economic growth.

Keywords: Economic Growth, Population Growth, Inflation, Education Expenditure, Pakistan, China.